Practice Exercises: Chapter 9

Chapter 9. The Problem of Induction

Determine whether the following explanations are Procedural, Interpretive, Functional, or Theoretical.

“The purpose of the sharp, pointed teeth in a carnivore is to allow the animal to tear and consume the flesh of its prey.”
“To restart the router, you must unplug the power cord, wait thirty seconds, and then plug it back in until the green lights stop blinking.”
“The reason the ancient ruins are arranged in a circular pattern is that the original inhabitants used them as a celestial calendar to track the summer solstice.”
“In the context of this legal contract, the term ‘force majeure’ refers to unforeseeable circumstances that prevent someone from fulfilling a contract.”

Evaluate the following scenarios based on the Five Criteria of Adequacy: Testability, Fruitfulness, Scope, Simplicity, and Conservatism.

Theory A explains why the lights went out in your house. Theory B explains why the lights went out in your house, why the entire neighborhood is dark, and why the local transformer is sparking. Which theory is superior in terms of Scope?
An inventor claims to have a “vibration machine” that cures all diseases, but says it won’t work if anyone tries to measure its frequency with electronic equipment. Which criterion is most obviously violated?
Theory X assumes that a common cold is caused by a virus. Theory Y assumes that a common cold is caused by invisible, intangible “misery spirits” that can only be seen by a specific secret society. Which theory wins on Simplicity (Ockham’s Razor)?
A new theory of physics suggests that gravity only works when you are looking at an object. This theory contradicts centuries of established astronomical and physical data. Which criterion does this violate?

Answer the following questions based on the philosophical challenges of induction.

Explain the “Circular Reasoning” error in this defense of induction: “Inductive reasoning is reliable because it has consistently yielded correct results for us throughout human history.”
In Bertrand Russell’s story of the “Inductive Chicken,” the chicken’s error was not a failure of observation. What was the actual problem with its reasoning?
True or False: According to David Hume, the “Principle of the Uniformity of Nature” (PUN) can be proven through deductive logic.

Why does the “S” step in the T.E.S.T. Method (Scrutinize alternative theories) help a thinker avoid Confirmation Bias?
If a conspiracy theory explains a wide range of disparate events but requires thousands of people to maintain a perfect secret for decades, which criterion of adequacy is it most likely failing?

Answer Key

Theory B. It explains more phenomena with a single explanation.
Testability. The claim is unfalsifiable because it prohibits the very measurement that would verify or disprove it.
Theory X. It does not “multiply entities” (spirit beings) unnecessarily.
Conservatism. It conflicts with a massive body of existing, well-founded knowledge.

This is circular because it uses induction (past success predicting future success) to prove that induction is valid. It assumes the very thing it is trying to prove.
The problem was that past regularity (being fed every day) is not a logical guarantee of future regularity. Inductive strength does not equal deductive certainty.
False. Hume argued it is not a “Relation of Ideas” and cannot be proven without circularity.

It forces the thinker to look for evidence that might support a different conclusion, preventing them from only seeing data that fits their preferred theory.
Simplicity. Such a theory is “messy” and relies on an enormous number of unproven, complex assumptions about human behavior and silence.

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